DalyThoughts.com
Title
Daly Thoughts
Description
The designations in the ECB2004 are based most significantly on the most recently available poll(s). In the past, I relied strictly on the polls, using my judgement only when there were two competing polls released during the same timeframe. In such cases, I would use my experience in watching opinion polls to give more credence to the poll run by the company or organization with the best reputation and the best methodology. However, while this removed almost all potential bias from my tracking, it allowed unfettered the bias of selectively released polls; if a poll was released by a group, and no other poll for that state was released in that timeframe, by default I would change the designation based upon that poll. Seeing how campaigns run many more polls than are released, and if one runs many polls eventually one will get a surprising result (an 'outlier', or a poll outside of the margin of error), the result was that campaigns would release the polls that would spin the race the way they want and instead of the ECB providing the most accurate picture, it could occasionally paint a distorted one.
The most blatent example of this was with Hawaii during the latter part of the 2000 campaign. At no point was Hawaii seriously being contested, and it was clear it was going to go for Gore. However, a poll was released which showed Bush up by a point. By the methodology I was using, Hawaii switched to Bush. This was accurate by my methods. It was not accurate by reality.
For ECB2004 I am reintroducing my own judgement into the mix. I work to not let my preference slip into my analysis. There may be some bias in here, but what bias there is should not be partisan in the way one would expect. I am a Bush supporter, but if there is partisan bias it probably goes in the other direction because I actively ask, whenever there is a borderline call to make, "am I being objective", and if I suspect there is even a chance that some rooting is involved, I go the other direction.
Languages
English
Additional Information
Related Domains
External Links
- Alexa: DalyThoughts.com
